Byline: Robert MacMillan

There's nothing much going on today ... other than a $56 billion attempt to reshape the nation's media industry. That $56 billion would come from none other than Philadelphia phenomenon Comcast Corp. , which stunned folks during their morning commute yesterday by announcing an unsolicited bid to buy a blue chip piece of America's entertainment industry, The Walt Disney Co .

A merger (don't call it hostile... yet) like this heralds so many mind-boggling ramifications that it's hard to begin describing them. One of the most interesting theories making the rounds today comes courtesy of News.com's trifecta of Jim Hu, John Borland and Mike Yamamoto, who in their analysis suggest that "Disney's failure to capitalize on the digital revolution in entertainment is a key factor in the company's vulnerability to Wednesday's hostile takeover bid by cable giant Comcast."

It's an intriguing thought, assuming that you cast aside for a moment the mainstream news media theories about Disney chief exec Michael Eisner and Brian Roberts of Comcast mysteriously swapping personalities, with Eisner transforming into a "Fantasia"-style dinosaur versus Roberts's sudden conversion into wise wizard, as The Washington Post surmised today.

But bear with the News.com crew for a moment: "To those familiar with its history and culture, the weakness in digital technologies reflected a loss of core values on which Walt Disney founded the company. Since the 1928 release of 'Steamboat Willie,' one of the first cartoons with synchronized sound, Disney has always been a leader in technological innovation," they wrote. "Critics say the company has lost that edge while expanding into other areas, leaving it open to attacks such as Comcast's $66 billion takeover attempt."

And a quick summary of Disney's faux pas in the digital dance: An early misfire with the "Daily Blast," a decision to go with paid subscriptions to online services while most everyone else took the free-way; the $790 million mistake of the Go.com portal, its ill-timed expensive acquisitions of search engine Infoseek and Web development company Starwave .

Hu, Borland and Yamamoto conclude that the death blow was delivered by Disney's divorce from Pixar Animation last month: "Even with such high-profile miscues online, however, it was the undoing of Disney's virtual monopoly in animation technologies that was arguably its most serious failure in the digital realm. After all, if Disney had remained focused on its basic strengths, Pixar may never have been able to succeed independently. Instead, in a classic reversal of fortunes, Pixar was the one holding all the cards in its final negotiations with Disney, having been produced its biggest recent hits, including 'Finding Nemo,' 'Monsters, Inc.,' and the 'Toy Story' series."

The public spat with Steve Jobs of Pixar (and Apple Computer) led Disney to jump into a partnership with Microsoft Corp. (see Cindy Webb's roundup of that news in Monday's Filter ), further obscuring the muddy waters that are rushing Steamboat Willie into an uncertain future. * CNET's News.com: Disney's Own Digital Divide

Resurrecting 'Convergence' Buzz

Meanwhile, the pundits arrived at a number of different conclusions about the causes, effects, motivations and long-term outcomes of a Comcast-Disney two-headed media monster. In the same way that it would be hard to give Michael Eisner a 20-words-or-less pitch for your unabridged movie treatment of "War and Peace," it's more than a little difficult to wrap up every implication in one little news column.

But here are a few interesting takes:

King Content's crown has been repossessed, if you subscribe to the New York Times's wrap-up analysis: "Disney is a content giant, with its movie studios as well as ABC Television and ESPN . A few years ago, Wall Street leaned toward the view that content would be king in the new media world, and Disney was a very hot stock. But lately investors have been inclined to think that the winners may be the ones that can get at customer dollars first." The winner in question? Cable companies, which investors hope will come out on top in the Internet wars and get a bigger share of the telecom business. "By that theory, those who provide content will have to take what the cable companies are willing to pay for their product. Whether or not that forecast works out in the end, it has affected valuations now. And that gives Comcast a valuable currency in its stock as it seeks to pull off a David vs. Goliath takeover," the Times reported. * The New York Times: Disney Deal Suggests Content Is No Longer King (Registration required)

And here's the San Jose Mercury News, describing an even bigger implication: "Comcast's studio grab is designed to counter the competitive threat posed by Rupert Murdoch 's News Corp. , which controls both satellite television services in the United States, 20th Century Fox Studio and the Fox News and Sports networks. Cable companies worry that Murdoch will develop exclusive Fox entertainment and sports content for its satellite operations, DirecTV and EchoStar Communications ; placing local cable services at a disadvantage." The Merc noted that the acquisition would give Comcast "a hedge against Murdoch... And it would position Comcast to offer advanced products, from an improved on-demand movie service to exclusive shows in the new, ultra-vivid high-definition television format." * The San Jose Mercury News: Comcast Sees Magic

Kingdom in Deal

The Boston Globe filed a story noting the content angle and, like many other media outlets, reminded readers that the last big content/delivery merger -- AOL and Time Warner -- was a big old bomb. And despite the talk of the benefits of convergence, The Globe's sources weren't buying it: "Convergence is bull," said Josh Bernoff , principal analyst at Forrester Research in Cambridge, Mass. "Just because you smash these companies together doesn't mean some enormous benefit happens." And there's more of the same, courtesy of the link below. * The Boston Globe: Convergence Strategy Sets Eyes Rolling

But apparently it's all about a marketplace of ideas at Forrester, considering Bernoff's colleague Chris Charron 's comments that came off as sounding much more positive about convergence: "Buying Disney would give Comcast a rich source of programming for Video on Demand and establish Comcast as the premiere company in the rapidly converging markets for delivering broadband Internet and video entertainment to households. That will help it fend off competition from other telecommunications and satellite companies that are vying for consumers, Charron says." * IDG News Service via PC World: Comcast Offers to Buy Disney

Let the Bidding Begin

Disney's recent, um, troubled relationships have left it like a baking apple: soft, bruised and ripe for sticking in someone else's pie. But Comcast's bid could spur some other companies into rustling up rival offers. Here's the Wall Street Journal on this idea: "Comcast's real concern is less Disney itself than other rivals swooping in for its trophy. Among the potential entrants who could make a play for Disney are Barry Diller 's InterActiveCorp. , John Malone 's Liberty Media Corp. , Sumner Redstone 's Viacom Inc. , Rupert Murdoch 's News Corp. , and perhaps even Bill Gates 's Microsoft Corp. They all have done far more media deals than Comcast CEO Brian Roberts and have strong incentives not to let Disney fall into the hands of a cable company." The solution? Ned Dewees , portfolio manager at New York-based money manager Douglas C. Lane and Associates , suggests that Disney "own up to its weak performance and dump... Eisner." And who should Disney keep as its presiding director? Former Sen. George Mitchell (D-Maine). * The Wall Street Journal: Will Comcast Get Its Trophy? (Subscription required)

The New York Post for once appears to be on the same page, journalistically speaking, with its staid colleague downtown. The Rupert Murdoch-owned tabloid reports that Time Warner -- apparently not getting the fact that it's being held up as the universal poster child today of failed media mergers -- might chase down Disney. "Time Warner, the world's biggest media company, was scheduled to hold a conference call with investment bankers yesterday afternoon to discuss the possibility of making a run at Disney, say sources familiar with the situation," the N.Y. Post reported. "Meanwhile, Pixar Animation Studios' Steve Jobs was understood to be in active discussions with parties, including cable operators, about putting together a team to emerge as a potential white knight for the Mouse House." * New York Post: Time Warner May Join Mouse Hunt

But Will the Feds Smell a Rat?